Fashion, Beauty, and the US Economy
The Hemline Index is known by the phrase “The shorter the skirt, the better the economy”. The Hemline Index believes that short hemlines indicate a booming economy and longer skirts indicate a declining economy.
Fashion has been political and centered around economics since the beginning of time. Fashion trends change along with the economy and politics of a nation. In the Great Depression, Nylon became a popular choice for silk stockings as families could not afford expensive fabrics. Flapper dresses were traded for modest and conservative pencil skirts. During the Great Recession, which was a period of market decline in economies globally that occurred in 2007-2009, fashion consisted of neutral colors, long hemlines, and budget-conscious consumers. Does that sound familiar?
A huge change in fashion is occurring presently in front of our very eyes. Only a few years ago, dark, drawn eyebrows, heavy contour and highlight, and colorful eyeshadows ruled the makeup industry. Now, clean minimal makeup has been taking the world by storm since 2020. Big fashion brands that would sell cute clothing pieces for going out and fun have been replaced by blazers and kitten heels. Is the rise of # corporate-core, no makeup makeup, and slicked-back buns a recession indicator?
Are we in a recession?
A recession is defined as a prolonged period in which a decline in economic activity occurs. Several factors that point to a recession include a decline in hiring, mass layoffs, a drop in production, and a decline in global trading.
JP Morgan published an article on March 31st, 2025, stating “In light of heightened trade policy uncertainty, J.P. Morgan Research has raised the probability of a global recession to 40%.” and “both business sentiment and consumer confidence have slumped in the U.S., and a slowdown here could weigh on global growth.”
While we are not in a recession…currently, many economists believe we are heading towards one. Current political changes under the Trump administration could have negative impacts on the nation’s economy. For example, studies have shown that the new tariff policies could begin trade wars that could cause large problems in manufacturing. Additionally, the uncertainty of the new tariff policies is expected to cause damage to the economy through investment and hiring processes. Firm investments and hiring processes will stop during economic uncertainty.
Additionally, the stock market has consistently been going down in 2025. The S&P 500 is down 4.64%, the Dow Jones is down 2.7%, and the Nasdaq is down 8.79%. The stock market is not always a measure of the overall economy, but it can reflect economic uncertainty.
Fashion is an art. The way that we dress expresses how we feel, who we are and the time we are living in, no matter which kind of consumer you are. Fashion throughout history tells a rich history of the beliefs and feelings that its wearers feel. In times of economic booms, colors, short hemlines and fun hairstyles show artistry and focus on fun. In times of political and economic anxiety, modest and conservative clothes deliver a message of focus. Neutral colors show that a population is focused on practicality and functionality over artistry. Fashion is a huge indicator of human behavior. If, as a society, we feel uncertain and anxious, our wardrobe will reflect that emotion. For this reason, fashion pieces of different eras are considered historical items, and it is also the same reason why fashion trends are reported and shared.